Two recent private surveys and other reports indicate a mixed outlook for construction. New construction starts slipped 3% in August, seasonally adjusted, and were down 15% year-to-date (YTD) in January-August 2008 compared to the same period of 2007, McGraw-Hill Construction (MHC) reported on Wednesday, based on its private data collection. Nonresidential building gained 17% in August and 5% YTD; nonbuilding construction fell 20% for the month but was nearly unchanged YTD; and residential starts fell 12% for the month and 38% YTD.

MHC figures tend to fluctuate because the full value of new projects is counted in the month they start. In August, the totals included a $3.5 billion steel-processing facility in Alabama, a $2.4 billion coal-gasification plant in Indiana, the $800 million Concord Casino/Hotel and Convention Center in the Catskills region of New York, and a $160 million ethanol plant in Iowa. The Renewable Fuels Association (www.ethanolrfa.org) currently lists 32 ethanol refineries under construction. Eastman Chemical Co. “is spending $1.3 billion to upgrade its sprawling chemical plant [in Kingsport, Tennessee]; Deere is spending a total of $187 million at its Waterloo [Iowa] plant to increase output of large tractors” and Cummins Inc. has been expanding output and production in Columbus, Indiana, the Wall Street Journal reported on September 11.

The American Institute of Architects reported on Wednesday that its Architecture Billings Index signaled for the seventh straight month in August that more respondents had lower billings than higher billings. As with the previous seven months, firms with an institutional practice reported a reading above 50, whereas firms with residential, commercial/industrial or mixed specializations remained below 50. “With business conditions remaining weak, [55% of] panelists report that backlogs at their firm are either modestly or substantially lower than they were at the beginning of the year. Just one-fifth indicated that backlogs are higher now than they were in early 2008,” AIA said.

Seasonally adjusted employment increased in 32 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 18 states from July to August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Data was collected before Hurricanes Fay, Gustav, Hannah and Ike. Compared to August 2007, employment rose in 27 states plus D.C. and decreased in 23 states. The largest year-over-year percentage increases were in D.C., 3.2%; Texas, 2.4%; Wyoming, 2.0%; South Dakota, 1.8%; and North Dakota, 1.6%. The largest decreases were in Rode Island, -2.6%; Arizona, -1.95; Michigan, -1.6%; Florida, -1.2%; Indiana, -1.1%; and Georgia, -1.0%. Seasonally adjusted construction employment rose for the month in 15 states plus D.C., fell in 23, and was unchanged (or within 100 of prior levels) in 12. Compared to August 2007, construction employment rose in 11 states, fell in 37, and was within 100 of prior levels in D.C., Tennessee and Mississippi. The largest year-over-year percentage gains were in Texas, 3.7%; Wyoming, 3.0%; N.D. and S.D., 2.6% each; and Oklahoma, 2.5%. The largest declines were in Arizona, -16%; Utah, -14%; South Carolina and Florida, -13% each; and Oregon, -11%.

The consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers fell 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted (-0.4% unadjusted) and rose 5.4% over 12 months, BLS reported on Wednesday. The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), which is used to adjust many construction and other labor contractors, rose 5.9% over 12 months. Prices were collected before Hurricane Ike hit. Ike appears not to have caused major disruptions of construction supplies, although shipments of some construction plastics have been affected by power and transport outages.